Is he still there?

trump
Whatever you have to say about Donald Trump, at least he’s motivated me to get to another blog article.

I’ve been posting a few comments and links on Facebook about Trump, and in general I’m finding that a lot of Canadians (at least those on my friends list) find him interesting, curious, outrageous, but they are not particularly concerned about the upcoming US election. It’s as though this was a neighbour down the street cutting up his trees, but none are going to fall on your lawn.

It was Pierre Trudeau who said of the USA: “Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” We would be naïve to think that whoever ends up as the next US president will not have a significant effect on Canada. In spite of their seventeen trillion dollar national debt, they are still regarded as the strongest economy in the world. The value of our dollar hangs on how it relates to the US greenback. Three-quarters of our exports, and two-thirds of our imports come from the US. In spite of every little do-dad we have around us coming from China, the more important trade is with the US— China only accounts for about 1/15 of our imports, and far less of our exports. Do you think that the installation of someone like Trump, already planning on building a complete wall between the US and Mexico (and making them somehow pay for it!) won’t offer danger to Canada’s trade?

The US is the most militarily powerful nation in the world. While they are a slight second to Russia in terms of nuclear weapons with 7,700 warheads (as far as nuclear warheads, this amounts to saying they can only destroy the earth ten times as opposed to twelve), they lead the world handily with both manpower and conventional armament. Their military budget exceeds second place Russia by about seven times, their manpower is almost double, their submarines (each Trident Class of which carries explosive power in excess of all the bombs of WW2 combined), their aircraft carriers at ten far exceeds that of any other nation. They lag behind Russia only in numbers of tanks. Their military budget exceeds that of the next nine nations combined. (Read all this and then say, “Donald Trump—Commander in Chief”.)

Canada sits at 20th place militarily, behind nations like Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Taiwan, Tailand, Poland, and others. And you think we aren’t affected by the capabilities of our friendly neighbour?

Many Canadians find the Trump candidacy humorous because they don’t really feel he has a chance of being elected. I certainly hope they are correct. However, no one thought he would be in the race for Republican nominee past the first debate. But he certainly is, and has become a solid leader in any polls being taken. Certainly he would never survive the state caucuses and primaries. But he has, and although it is early, he is the leader in votes for the nomination convention this July.

Statistics are interesting. Chew on these: Trump just won South Carolina’s primary handily. Six of the last seven candidates to win SC went on to win the nomination as Republican candidate for president. Trump won New Hampshire as well. Every Republican candidate in history who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has gone on to win the nomination.

Beyond winning the nomination of the Republican Party as their candidate, he will be into a contest from July to November with the Democrat candidate for president, looking at this time as being Hillary Clinton.

There’s a balance for you—how many Americans will find electing a woman as president less preferable to electing a jackass like Trump? (Oops, I betrayed my bias already!)

So what’s wrong with Donald Trump? Let me count the ways…

He’s a bully. He’s called opponents liars and thieves. He’s insulted Mexicans, and is strongly biased against them. He’d like to get rid of millions of them, and erect a wall. He’s insulted women (yet many younger women vote for him—go figure). He’s a racist when it comes to Blacks and Jews. He’s insulted the Pope—if you’re Catholic, or just care about the current one. He’s biased against any Islamic person, and wants them banned from the country. In fact he’s brought out hatred openly against just about any group of people or individuals who have opposed him. Qualities of a president of the US?

He’s taking on Apple in a war of words over the issue of access to a terrorist’s phone. He might be correct on that stance for a lot of people, but remember how he announced his position: “I just thought of it… let’s boycott Apple!” I just thought of it? Is this how a presidential candidate makes a decision encouraging millions to boycott one of the top American corporations? What’s next? “We’re going to bomb North Korea… I just thought of it!”

The man gives new meaning to the expression loose cannon. He’s a potentially powerful cannon that has long broken its ropes and is careening around the deck on a rolling sea…loaded and primed.

So why is he even there? His presence, as well as the success of the Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, is directly related to the hatred of millions of Americans for government as they have seen it over the last few decades. Politics is a power business, and it takes a billion dollars of campaign work to become president. You have to pick up supporters, and you would be a fool to think that nothing is expected in return. The banks fleece borrowers to the point of luring them into country wide home foreclosures, and the banks get bailed out, most of their CEO’s waltzing off with millions in rewards. Their young men march off to war in strange lands, die by the thousands, and their bodies are brought home, largely secretly so as to not stir up the people. Freeing the innocent is the claim for mid-east wars, but most know its Oil. They fight groups armed with weapons they provided them with last time around. Fear grips the land as they become targets for terrorists, whose message and intent the average American hardly understands—and government doesn’t seem to be able to do much about it. Too many Americans are feeling their nation is somehow out of control, and their families don’t mean much in the scheme of things. They’re afraid. Donald Trump empathizes with their fear, and says it won’t continue under his rule. He makes no definite promises, other than blocking immigration, building walls, and generally hunkering down like a mean-tempered badger in a burrow, but for the man on the street who has been looking over his shoulder for a decade, by golly, it sounds like it might just work.

I don’t have a great record at election predictions, which should scare you more than comfort. I have a feeling that he will fall short as more and more states run their primaries to select the Republican candidate. I probably will be wrong about that. I do think that a Trump – Clinton showdown for president in November will (by virtue of the American people waking up and saying, “What were we smoking?”) go to Hillary Clinton, but—and here I’m most concerned—I could be wrong about that. Hillary is a woman…no woman has ever been elected as president in the past. Hillary represents the power people all over again—connections are obvious to the past, to the banking industry, to the governments of the past, to powerful forces that Joe and Mary in the fields don’t begin to understand.

And, as it seems lately on the campaign trail, when you elect Hillary, you also get Bill. That might be good; that might be bad. No one is entirely sure how people will take Bill2. Is he more appealing to the electorate as “First Man” than Trump’s possible First Lady, third wife Melania, famous for semi-clad modeling shoots?

In any event, Canadians need to be prepared. Make up large signs now, and in case of a Trump win in November, be ready to stand all along the border, from coast to coast, waving them in American faces: The theme is, ”Are you guys nuts????”

Let’s hope for the best.
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A few links (It’s not hard to get stories on Donald Trump):

A Trump dealing from the past. Trying to execute the Central Park Five:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/17/central-park-five-donald-trump-jogger-rape-case-new-york

The new First lady (PG-13):
Melania Trump

Famously Offensive Trump Quotes (PG or R at least):
http://presidential-candidates.insidegov.com/stories/5187/23-ridiculously-offensive-donald-trump-quotes#Intro

6 thoughts on “Is he still there?

  1. Francis, as usual your writing is so well done and well researched. I agree with everything you said and, like you, I hope Trump is not successful. However,having said that, the next Republican contender is Ted Cruz. I would love to hear your thoughts on him as POTUS. I think your Pierre Trudeau quote should be posted on Facebook all on its own and shared extensively.

  2. Did you mention that Trump is dangerous? Or that his ‘seeming’ success is just that — it ‘seems’ true?
    Basically, I feel Trump has had surprising success so far because he is VERY different than the usual suspects that appear in front of voters at this point in the election process. The ‘usual suspects’ are usually the same as the previous suspects and, in the eyes of the electorate, do not perform as advertised. The electorate want something quite different.
    Helping Trump to gain office is an attempt to end the status quo — an anti-establishment vote. And, that’s OK with me… except that Trump is such a ‘loose cannon’ that he poses a danger to America and elsewhere. He says things that people want to hear but many such things are preposterous — like walling off Mexico (heaven forbid)!

    • Don, I thought I gave a good indication that Trump is “dangerous”. And his success in becoming the Republican nominee is more than “seems” true. He is very strongly the front runner, and unless the results change on March 15 when several of the stronger states run primaries, he will go to the July convention as their likely nominee. This is despite the Republican brass not wanting him, nor people like the Koch brothers (who are waiting in the wings to likely back anyone-but-Trump in taking on Hillary Clinton… possibly to the tune of $900 million in support) wanting him as Republican candidate. See: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/02/koch-brothers-take-on-trump

  3. Well done Francis!!
    To me, he is a very dangerous man! Power hungry with limited boundaries and compassion or empathy. Indeed connections with January, 1933 can be made….when the German electorate voted in Adolph Hitler!!
    Hope all is well with you and yours, and take care!!
    Dave

  4. Francis- a really great piece. How good to get comment and viewpoint from outside our national cocoon! (GB) Here the first thought is disbelief, and now as things progress, fear. Is it possible? God forbid!

  5. Between a jackass and a woman, many Americans will favor the jackass.

    Now you’ve got to remember a few things about our politics. All Americans hate the government and many would like to see it shrink. Almost all Americans believe that politicians are corrupt and cannot be trusted. Nobody favors higher taxes.

    Yet when little Freddie skins his knee on the monkey bars at school, there is an outcry that “there ought to be a law…” and politicians will immediately make one — which, of course, expands government’s reach and need for more tax dollars to implement the “Little Freddie” law.

    Go figure.

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